Staggering death tolls! Equivalents to September 11, 2001 terrorists attack daily! Headlines, when do you believe them? I recently compared deaths from COVID-19 to deaths from cancer. It is not in the same league, yet.
Coronavirus Mortality Rate Headline
Virginia Commonwealth University reported in a JAMA medical journal (https://bit.ly/2KlNgF0) that COVID-19 is now the leading cause of death in the United States. I do not see it the same way.
Two years ago, deaths from cancer and heart disease were roughly 600,000 each or around 3,300 deaths per day over the course of a year. The population of the United States in 2018 was roughly 327 million. Coronavirus deaths reported this week, based on a seven-day rolling average are slightly over 2,600 with a couple of reports exceeding 3,000 per day and a couple of daily death tolls under 2,000 per day.
Yes, coronavirus deaths are real, and the numbers of those deaths are large. However, an occasional spike that might surpass daily deaths from cancer and heart disease is not national news unless it exceeds that daily average for more than a couple of days a week. I counted five days this year that COVID-19 deaths exceeded 3,000 deaths in one day.
Coronavirus Daily Deaths
(https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) Today the daily death toll for coronavirus is 1,928. Looking at the daily statistics for coronavirus deaths, the numbers vary from 1,388 to 3,400 in just the last six days.
I am guessing that there are delays in reported deaths and deaths that occurred a day or two ago finally reach the compilation and a death tally for one day may include deaths from yesterday and the day before. Why else would there be such a variation? The seven-day rolling average of daily deaths smooths those fluctuations in daily deaths and shows around 2,500-2,600 over the past week, a much more accurate account of daily deaths from COVID-19.
Future Lethality of Coronavirus
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=daily-deaths&tab=trend Predicting anything is difficult. There are many variables that can cause numbers to increase rapidly, remain the same, or tumble downwards. Another database for reporting coronavirus deaths (and I believe this includes both deaths directly from the virus and deaths with the virus) at 2,616, a figure I rounded off earlier in this article.
The projections show an increased trend topping out around 3,600-3,700 deaths per day on January 5th. On that date, vaccinations and other factors show a dramatic drop in daily death rates. Within a month (February 5th) the daily death count is averaging nearly a thousand less. By March 5th, the predicted daily deaths range around 1,200 per day.
The Death Demographic
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm We hear that those over 55 years of age are vulnerable and every decade after that the risk increases intensely. People over 85 years of age have recorded 87,259 coronavirus death and 832,802 deaths from all causes. COVID-19 deaths account for 10.4% of the total deaths in that demographic.
For people from the age of 75 to 84 years of age, the COVID-19 deaths are 75,165 and the deaths from all causes are 672,051 or 11.2%. Those in the age group of 65 to 74 years of age have total deaths from COVID-19 at 59,056 and deaths from all causes at 551,869 or 10.7% are coronavirus-related.
From 55 to 64 years of age, there are 33,378 COVID-19 deaths and 361,688 total deaths from all causes, or 9.2%. COVID-19 deaths in the age group of 45 to 54 years of age are 13,580 and deaths from all causes are 157,591 or 8.6% of all deaths in that age group. Below 44 years of age, there were
2,522 COVID-19 deaths and 195,934 total deaths from all causes or 1.3% of all deaths.
These figures address the total within specific demographics. There are a total of 270,960 total COVID-19 deaths in this database with the end reporting date of December 12, 2020. Worldometers reports 319,979 total COVID-19 deaths as of today in the United States. There appears to be a time lag in getting death statistics from one database to another.
82% of all COVID-19 deaths occur over the age of 45. 29% of those deaths are
in the 85 years and older category, 25% in the age group 75-84 years of age, 18% in the 65 to 74 years old, and 10% of those between the ages of 55 and 64 years of age. Only 18% of COVID-19 deaths occur in those under the age of 45.
The total COVID-19 deaths account for around 0.8-1.0% of the total US population. The death numbers for cancer and heart disease account for 3.6% of the total deaths in the United States in the year 2018, the last year that reliable statistics were published by the CDC. Older people, those over 75 years of age account for over half the deaths from COVID-19.
Today, COVID-19 deaths might approach the daily deaths from cancer and heart disease but touching a daily death count is not the shocking and overwhelming headline that is reported. Vaccines are being administered across the United States. As more people are vaccinated, the daily death rates will decrease.
Live Longer & Enjoy Life! – Red O’Laughlin – RedOLaughlin.com